Bitcoin’s supply is increasingly shifting into the hands of long-term investors, with the share of short-term speculative transactions falling to historic lows, according to data from CryptoQuant and ARK Invest. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that the portion of short-term investors in realized market capitalization has dropped to 23.5%, a level that has only been seen approximately 4% of the time in Bitcoin’s history. In contrast, long-term investors now account for 52.5% of the realized cap, nearing the 2018 peak of roughly 55%.
ARK Invest’s latest report revealed that the absolute number of bitcoins held by long-term entities reached an all-time high of about 14.85 million BTC. This accumulation occurred even as Bitcoin endured a challenging second quarter, closing at around $58,544 — a 14% decline — following seven consecutive weeks of outflows from U.S. spot ETFs totaling approximately 71,000 BTC.
Adler cautioned that while the growing dominance of “strong hands” may appear bullish, it is not automatically a buy signal. Historically, low speculative activity and heavy long-term accumulation have marked market bottoms, but a sustained price recovery requires a significant rebound in demand and fresh capital inflows. The analyst drew parallels to the 2022–2023 bear market bottom, where similar on-chain patterns only turned positive once new money entered the market.
Both reports suggest that the current market structure reflects resilience among holders, but without renewed demand, low trading volumes could keep prices under pressure. The data underscores the complex interplay between short-term sell-offs and deep-seated conviction among Bitcoin’s core investor base.
