The Scottish Mortgage Trust (SMT) share price remains under scrutiny, trading at 1,361p on Tuesday, down 12% from its all-time high, as its largest constituent, SpaceX, prepares to report its first post-IPO earnings. The stock has been pressured by a broader sell-off in SpaceX, which at one point erased over $1 trillion in value after its record low. With the earnings report due later today, investors are watching closely to see whether the results can spark a recovery or extend the decline.
SpaceX accounts for a 17% weighting in SMT’s portfolio, making its performance pivotal. Ahead of the report, Wall Street analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with consensus price targets around $230 versus the current $114. RBC has upgraded to outperform with a target of $225, Raymond James maintains a strong buy, and Needham has set a $250 target; the most optimistic analyst sees shares reaching $800. The options market also leans positive, with a put/call ratio of just 0.30, though high implied volatility of 207% suggests potential for sharp moves.
Revenue for the quarter is expected to hit $6.9 billion, driven by launches, Starlink, and its expanding data center business, while the net loss is forecast to narrow to $1.9 billion. Beyond the numbers, any update on a potential merger with Tesla—following reports that Tesla may sell its Chinese operations to facilitate a deal—could significantly influence sentiment. The company’s long‑term growth outlook remains tied to AI demand, with major deals in place with Anthropic, Reflection AI, and Alphabet, each paying hundreds of millions monthly.
On the technical side, SMT shares have held above the 200‑day Exponential Moving Average and an ascending trendline connecting lows since November 2025, suggesting the bullish structure is intact. A bounce toward the 1,500p resistance level is plausible if support holds. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s SPCX stock has carved a double‑bottom pattern at $106 with a neckline at $118.5, and the Relative Strength Index is turning higher, hinting at a potential double‑digit rally. However, a break below either stock’s key support could trigger further downside.
The broader Scottish Mortgage portfolio offers some cushion: second‑largest holding TSMC reported a 33% revenue jump to over $40 billion and margins above 55%, while Amazon’s AWS business continues to see strong demand. The trust also carries a significant stake in Anthropic, whose valuation has soared past $900 billion as annualized revenue races toward $74 billion. These positives may offset near‑term pressure from the SpaceX earnings event.
