Recent analyses by Bitfinex and crypto analyst Darkfost highlight two critical macro and on-chain indicators that could signal the next major move for Bitcoin. On August 5, 2026, Bitfinex underscored the importance of the 10-year real yield hovering near the 2.5% level — a threshold that has never historically seen sustained Bitcoin price action above it. Simultaneously, on-chain data reveals that only 52% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, a level that in past cycles has marked the final stages of bear markets.
Bitfinex noted that the 10-year real yield stands at 2.41%, just below the key 2.5% barrier. If yields rise and hold above 2.5%, it could trigger a shift in market dynamics, potentially signaling a bearish sentiment shift for Bitcoin. The exchange, known for its deep liquidity and analytical insights, emphasized that this macroeconomic indicator has never coincided with Bitcoin trading at elevated levels, making it a vital point of reference for traders.
Meanwhile, data shared by analyst Darkfost shows the percentage of Bitcoin’s supply in profit has dropped to 52%. This metric tracks coins last moved at a price lower than the current market value, meaning nearly half of all circulating BTC is underwater. Historically, in every previous bear market, this ratio has fallen below 50% — meaning loss-making supply overtook profit-making supply for an extended period. Darkfost pointed out that the ratio briefly dipped below 50% in June and July 2026, suggesting the market may be entering the final capitulation phase. However, analysts caution that this metric alone does not guarantee a reversal, with macroeconomic conditions and institutional flows playing equally vital roles.
The convergence of these two signals paints a cautious picture. While the 52% supply-in-profit figure hints at potential seller exhaustion, the looming 2.5% real yield threshold could introduce fresh headwinds. Traders are advised to monitor Treasury yield movements and on-chain data closely, as a sustained break above the yield threshold or a further dip in the profit ratio could define the next trend for Bitcoin.
