Despite a brief recovery from its plunge to around $1.02, XRP is facing growing pessimism from traders on decentralized prediction platforms. Kalshi data shows a significant number of bets anticipating another test of the $1 level this August, following a period of extreme volatility that sent the asset back to month-to-date lows. The prediction market recorded a trading volume of about $13,374 linked to XRP's downside potential.
Polymarket traders echoed the bearish sentiment, pricing a 65% chance that XRP will dip below $1.00 by month's end. The odds for a rise to $1.20 stand at just 17%, while a move to $1.40 is seen as a mere 2% probability. This aligns with XRP's historical August performance, which has closed in the red for the last four years and only four times green since 2013.
However, technical analysts are painting a starkly different picture. After XRP touched $1.02 on Friday, its weekly RSI entered deeply oversold territory. Dark Defender described the move as the completion of a major correction within a 'Grand Wave' structure, predicting ‘the strongest reversal in history’ once the $1.05 zone is reclaimed. Fellow analyst Gerla noted a bullish RSI divergence at support and said a reclaim of $1.08 could trigger a serious rebound. Long-term charts from other analysts like ChartNerd and EGRAG CRYPTO hint at breakout targets in the low to mid double digits, though those seem aggressive under current conditions.
At press time, XRP is attempting to build on a 1.61% gain over the last 24 hours, hovering precariously above the critical $1.02 support as the market weighs both the bearish bets and the bullish technical signals.
