Bitcoin’s on-chain activity is flashing signals last seen during the 2018–2019 bear market, while its largest wallets are quietly absorbing supply at the fastest pace of 2026. The two developments paint a cautiously optimistic picture of a potential bottoming process, though decisive technical resistance remains unconquered.
The 30-day exponential moving average of active addresses recently dipped to approximately 609,700, with the 100-day EMA touching 622,000, according to data from Cryptoquant. Both levels are strikingly close to the troughs registered in late 2018—when Bitcoin bottomed near $3,200. Back then, the 30-day EMA fell to roughly 570,700 and the 100-day to 605,400 before the network participation began to recover alongside a new bull cycle.
With Bitcoin now trading around $64,900, the similarity in network engagement suggests participation may be stabilizing. The Relative Strength Index has climbed to 54.6, indicating a slight bullish tilt, and shorter moving averages at $64,247 and $63,346 are acting as nearby support. However, the asset still faces formidable overhead resistance: the 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit at $66,819 and $72,193 respectively, and the broader downtrend remains intact until these levels are recaptured.
While the on-chain data points to a potential structure bottom, analysts caution against drawing direct parallels. Changes in transaction batching, exchange activity, and network usage can distort address counts. The more actionable signal may be that both address EMAs are now rising from historically low territory, hinting that the contraction in network participation may have ended.
Concurrently, on-chain accumulation patterns reveal that the largest whales—wallets holding over 10,000 BTC—are turning bullish. In the past two months, this cohort has added a net 46,420 BTC, surpassing even the March 2026 record of 23,238 coins. This aggressive buying contrasts with the behavior of retail wallets (0.1–1 BTC), which have distributed a net 9,700 coins over the same period. Overall, only the whale class is displaying net accumulation, while other cohorts remain idle or are selling into sideways price action.
Despite these signs, spot demand remains tepid. The Coinbase premium index continues to trade in the red, indicating lackluster U.S.-based interest, and buying activity appears to be shifting toward Asian and other global venues. Binance has recorded a rotation from TRON-based USDT to Ethereum-based stablecoins, with over $700 million in outflows of the former and inflows of the latter, some of which may be allocated to BTC. Meanwhile, corporate treasury appetite persists: H100 group announced a purchase of 2,455.37 BTC on Monday, and market watchers are eyeing Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) for a possible end to its recent selling streak.
Bitcoin sentiment remains entrenched in the ‘fear’ range, and the prolonged sideways grind is delaying a definitive bottom call. The convergence of address-bottom signals and whale accumulation offers potential support, but until price clears the $66,800–$72,200 resistance band, the technical picture will stay in flux.
