Two prominent reports on US existing home sales in July presented conflicting figures, yet both suggested the housing market is showing signs of stabilization rather than accelerating decline. One report indicated a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, a 0.2% monthly rise that beat expectations of 4.05 million. Another report pointed to a 1.7% monthly decline to a rate of 3.83 million units, but that drop was smaller than the 2.4% economists had forecast.
The divergence may stem from differing methodologies or seasonal adjustments, but the common thread is a market that, while pressured by high mortgage rates and limited inventory, is not on a steep downward trajectory. The median existing-home price continued its climb, up 4.2% year-over-year to $422,600, marking the 13th consecutive month of annual price gains. Inventory remained tight at a 3.8-month supply, far below the six-month level signaling a balanced market. Mortgage rates hovering near 6.8% continue to squeeze affordability, with first-time buyers making up just 29% of transactions.
For the broader economy, the mixed data underscores a housing sector that is cooling but not collapsing. The slower-than-expected decline in one report offers hope that demand is adjusting, while the slight uptick in the other suggests some buyers are returning as rates ease from spring peaks. However, with affordability challenges unresolved, a sustained recovery remains unlikely in the near term.
