Bitcoin has stabilized near the $64,000 level, but multiple technical and on-chain indicators suggest the market is still searching for a bottom rather than beginning a new sustained bull run. After falling from above $120,000, BTC has been making lower highs for months, and the recovery from June's sub-$60,000 low has so far turned into consolidation rather than a clear trend reversal.
On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average sits at $64,122 and the 100-day at $66,682, while the more significant 200-day moving average is near $72,017. Bitcoin is trading below a descending trendline connecting major highs since the start of the year, with the trendline currently around the $66,000 area. This keeps the broader trend bearish-to-neutral. A daily breakout above $66,000–$67,000 would be the first structural improvement, potentially opening the door toward the $74,000 resistance zone and the 200-day average.
Momentum remains unconvincing. The daily RSI is around 49.6, effectively neutral, and the 4-hour RSI has rebounded from near oversold but is not strong enough to confirm a breakout. CryptoQuant’s indicator heatmap remains cautious: the Thermocap Multiple, NVM Ratio, PnL Index, Bollinger Percent, Pi Cycle Top and weekly RSI are still considered bearish. One-year Realized Net P&L and Apparent Demand are also bearish, while the MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Adjusted SOPR, LTH/STH SOPR Ratio and Mayer Multiple have shifted to neutral. That neutralization is an improvement, but it is not the same as a bullish regime change.
On the 4-hour chart, price is compressing between an ascending support trendline and a descending resistance line. The key short-term resistance is the $66,000–$67,000 cluster. The most important downside levels are the rising support near $62,000 and the $60,000 support zone, with the broader demand area around $54,000.
Funding rates have also normalized after deeply negative readings during the earlier sell-off around the $70,000–$80,000 region. The latest funding reading is about 0.006%, showing leveraged long positioning has returned but is not at an extreme. This is broadly constructive, although it creates short-term liquidation risk if BTC fails to break above the $65,000–$67,000 resistance.
Overall, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $66,000–$67,000 zone and then challenge the 200-day moving average near $72,000 to make a stronger recovery case. Until price, momentum, demand and on-chain conditions align more decisively, another Bitcoin bull run is not yet ready.
