Bitcoin’s recent price rally is primarily fueled by derivatives trading, with spot demand remaining net negative, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He cautions that the current market structure—where futures open interest rises while spot buying lags—mirrors previous patterns that ultimately lost momentum. In April, a similar futures-led surge failed to hold because it lacked sufficient spot market support.
Futures markets often amplify price swings due to leverage, but rallies built solely on leveraged positions are vulnerable to sharp reversals. Ki Young Ju emphasizes that sustainable Bitcoin rallies require a balance between spot and futures demand, and right now, the spot side is missing. Without broader participation from investors purchasing actual Bitcoin, the current upward move could falter.
Investors are advised to monitor ETF inflows, on-chain metrics, and exchange activity for signs of strengthening spot demand. If spot buying begins to catch up, the rally could gain a more solid foundation; otherwise, the market may face a heightened risk of losing steam.
