Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 10%, down from earlier projections, as the Senate's legislative calendar shrinks and unresolved policy fights persist. Lawmakers return on Sept. 14 with only 14 scheduled session days before the October election recess, leaving little room for procedural maneuvering on the wide-ranging crypto market-structure bill.
The CLARITY Act would divide digital asset oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while setting rules for stablecoin rewards, anti-money laundering controls, decentralized finance, and political ethics. Galaxy's head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the legislation would need immediate action and sustained floor time to have a realistic path forward.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture before the August break, setting a Sept. 15 procedural vote that would require 60 senators to limit debate. If that threshold is not met, the bill could effectively stall for the year. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the measure by a 15-9 vote on May 14, but the full chamber still faces major disputes.
Democratic negotiators have pushed for stronger ethics enforcement and tougher anti-money laundering provisions, while some Republicans have demanded additional protections for community bank deposits. The stablecoin rewards issue has proven especially contentious: banking groups led by the American Bankers Association and Independent Community Bankers of America want tighter limits on yield-like incentives, arguing they could trigger deposit flight, while crypto industry representatives see broad restrictions as anti-competitive.
With the legislative route narrowing, the SEC and CFTC are building their own interim framework through rulemaking, interpretive guidance, and regulatory exemptions. Galaxy said these administrative actions can clarify issuance, trading, and supervision faster than a stalled bill. However, the firm also warned that such fixes lack the legal durability of a statute and could be revised or reversed by a future administration, leaving token projects, exchanges, and compliance teams operating in a two-tier regulatory reality.
Industry pressure remains visible: more than 200 organizations in the Stand With Crypto coalition urged Senate leaders to bring the bill to the floor. Still, the next measurable test is the Sept. 15 cloture vote, and even a successful vote would leave amendment debate and other floor procedures before final passage.
Meanwhile, activity in tokenized real-world assets continues to scale, and developer attention remains concentrated among major Layer 1 and Layer 2 ecosystems. Galaxy cautioned that the rules for assets built on those networks will still depend on what the SEC and CFTC do next.
