Goldman Sachs has told clients that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September is very unlikely, a shift that is being read as a potential bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Bitcoin was trading near $63,500, up about 1% since midnight UTC, but still locked in the $62,000 to $66,000 range that has defined its action since early July.
Chief economist Jan Hatzius cited cooling retail sales, softer employment figures and slowing inflation as evidence that the economy is losing momentum. In a Sunday note, Hatzius argued that inflation is more likely to improve than worsen through the rest of the year, and that market pricing for the funds rate remains too hawkish.
The odds of a 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75% to 4.00% range have fallen to just 30.6%, according to CME FedWatch data, down after July’s inflation report matched expectations for cooling. Traders increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy steady in September, a scenario that historically has been supportive for riskier investments by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Still, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic forces, including geopolitical tensions and regulatory developments. The Federal Reserve has emphasized that decisions remain data-dependent, meaning any surprise in inflation or employment figures could quickly alter the outlook. For now, however, Goldman Sachs’ dovish tilt is reinforcing hopes that stable or looser monetary conditions could help Bitcoin finally escape its prolonged summer range.
