Bitcoin’s prolonged correction may be approaching its final phase, according to a new report from asset manager VanEck. The firm said eight of its 12 Bitcoin Capitulation Check indicators were active as of Aug. 12, while all 12 indicators entered capitulation territory at some point during the previous three months. Researchers described the setup as a critical phase of liquidation and seller exhaustion, with the market potentially transitioning toward accumulation between September and November.
The signal cluster coincides with a rebound in institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Aug. 17, their best daily performance since May. Over the 30 days covered by VanEck, spot Bitcoin ETPs absorbed roughly $663 million, equal to about 10,400 BTC, helping reverse approximately $2.4 billion of outflows from the prior month. Farside data showed $297.5 million of inflows on Aug. 17 and another $189.3 million on Aug. 18. Bitcoin traded near $64,250 on Aug. 19, above VanEck’s Aug. 11 reference of $63,549 but still below its 200-day moving average.
Long-term holder behavior remains a key factor. Supply held for more than one year fell by 356,534 BTC over 30 days, a decline of 2.9% to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of circulating supply. Coins aged between one and two years posted the largest reduction at approximately 156,000 BTC, while coins older than ten years declined by only about 4,000 BTC. VanEck noted that some movements may reflect wallet security concerns rather than selling, citing the Coldcard security failure, but said the security explanation is difficult to verify.
The report places the current correction in its tenth month from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak. Bitcoin’s drawdown of roughly 49% ranks only in the 35th percentile of its own history, and VanEck said institutional ownership and spot ETP demand could produce a shallower bear market than the 78% to 94% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles. However, the firm stressed that this remains an assumption rather than a confirmed outcome.
VanEck’s backtest offers a cautious short-term view. When eight to 12 capitulation indicators were active, Bitcoin returned an average 12.8% over the following 90 days, below the 15.2% baseline, and 32% over 180 days, below the 36.3% baseline. Outperformance appeared only over a one-year horizon, based on heavily overlapping observations that VanEck said should not carry substantial weight. The findings suggest capitulation signals may identify late-cycle conditions without pinpointing an exact bottom, leaving room for prolonged sideways trading before a durable recovery begins.
