Bitcoin is showing renewed signs of strength after months of subdued trading, with on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reporting that spot demand is approaching its first positive shift since February. The metric, which compares total spot volume with on-chain flows, is considered a direct gauge of genuine buying interest. According to CryptoQuant, when spot demand turns positive after a prolonged negative stretch, Bitcoin has historically posted a median gain of 18.1% over the following 60 days, with a 78% probability of continuing higher. That probability rises to 87% when valuations are depressed, which some metrics suggest is currently the case.
Separately, technical indicators are also improving. Bitcoin is holding above its 50-day exponential moving average, currently around $95,000, and is trading roughly 5% above that level. The Relative Strength Index has moved to a neutral zone near 55, while the MACD has printed a bullish crossover. Traders are watching immediate resistance at $100,000, with a decisive break above that level potentially opening the door to retest the all-time high near $108,000 set in December 2024. On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $95,000 and the 100-day EMA near $88,000 are key support levels.
While the signals are encouraging, CryptoQuant notes that confirmation would require sustained positive spot-demand readings over several days or weeks. Broader macroeconomic policy, regulatory news, and risk sentiment remain important external factors that could influence Bitcoin’s direction.
