Bitcoin is positioning for a push toward $90,000 as investors bet on a smooth leadership transition at the US Federal Reserve, with Polymarket pricing Kevin Warsh’s confirmation odds at 97% by May 15—up sharply from 28% on Thursday. The US Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, removing a key obstacle that had prompted Republican Senator Thom Tillis to place an effective hold on the nomination. Markets don’t like uncertainty, said Iggy Ioppe, former Credit Suisse banker and CIO at tokenisation platform Theo. In the near term, it’s a hawkish hold.
Powell’s term ends mid-May, and his tenure has been marked by clashes with President Donald Trump over the pace of rate cuts. Those clashes intensified as geopolitical shocks such as the US-Israeli conflict pushed energy prices higher and complicated the inflation outlook. Warsh’s confirmation hearing last week laid bare political stakes: lawmakers pressed him on independence and rate policy; he said the president never asked him to predetermine rate decisions, signaled inflation control remains a priority, and suggested reviewing how the Fed measures price pressures and communicates. Senator Elizabeth Warren accused the administration of trying to install a compliant Fed chair.
Bitcoin has climbed 18% over the past month, supported by renewed institutional demand and $2.5 billion in exchange-traded fund inflows in April—a 90% jump from March, according to DefiLlama. Analysts said last week that if Fed tailwinds align with the Clarity Act’s passage, Bitcoin could hit $100,000. The breakout accelerated after a violent short squeeze on Wednesday, with more than $1 billion in Bitcoin short positions liquidated in about one hour. BTC surged through $68,000 and briefly traded above $69,000, while Ether climbed above $2,100. Crypto-related equities also rallied: Coinbase added about 13%, Strategy 14%, Circle 12%, and American Bitcoin 17%.
Broader financial conditions supported risk assets as US Treasury yields declined after the Treasury Department announced plans to increase purchases of longer-dated government debt by as much as $4 billion. Prediction market traders rapidly repriced August outcomes: Polymarket odds that Bitcoin touches $70,000 during August jumped to approximately 72%, up from around 31% on August 9. Regulatory optimism also increased, with crypto executives scheduled to meet President Trump at the White House and recent SEC proposals strengthening expectations for a more accommodating US digital-asset framework. At last check, Bitcoin was down 0.5% over 24 hours at $77,638, while Ethereum fell 0.7% to $2,316.
