Bernstein has maintained its Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), implying roughly 59% upside after shares closed at $87.98 on Friday. The brokerage argues Circle’s growth cycle can continue even if the Clarity Act does not pass during the expected September session vote.
In a note led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein said Bitcoin and stablecoins are both beneficiaries of a macro regime shift, with BTC attracting demand for hard assets and stablecoins absorbing increased Treasury bill supply. The analysts expect Circle to be driven by real-world blockchain capital markets, stablecoin payment adoption, and emerging agentic payments.
USDC supply increased by about $1.7 billion over the past week after nearly six months of largely flat growth. Bernstein estimates Circle’s stablecoin accounts for around 80% of decentralized exchange trading and finance volumes. Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, excluding bots and high-frequency activity, reached about $11 trillion in 2025 and is tracking at an annualized rate of roughly $17 trillion through July 2026, up about 60% year over year.
Circle’s Agent Stack, launched in May, now supports more than 900 paid services, with 99.3% of x402 agent-payment volume settling in USDC. The brokerage said adoption of such machine-to-machine payments could create another source of stablecoin transaction demand outside crypto trading.
Bernstein said the outcome of the Clarity Act would not materially change its investment case. “We believe, this growth cycle is independent of the Clarity Act passing in the September session,” the analysts wrote. If the Senate does not support the bill in the Sept. 15 vote, they expect SEC and CFTC intervention to accelerate. The note argued that either the current reward model or a future activity-linked reward structure would be workable for USDC.
Circle has also expanded institutional access through Standard Chartered, Fireblocks, BNY’s Digital Asset Custody platform, and partnerships with JCB, Kakao, and Toss. Bernstein acknowledged rising competition from models such as Open USD, but maintained its bullish stance. The brokerage disclosed that Chhugani holds long crypto positions and that it has had investment banking or other business relationships with Circle over the past 12 months.
