Global memory chip prices are set for another sharp increase after China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) reportedly hit a production ceiling, undermining hopes that expanded Chinese output would ease a worldwide memory shortage. Susquehanna analysis published Monday projects DRAM contract prices will rise more than 50% this quarter alone, while NAND flash prices are forecast to climb 60%. TrendForce separately expects conventional DRAM contract prices to increase by another 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter of 2026.
CXMT doubled its wafer output compared with 2024 to roughly 240,000 wafers monthly, but industry insiders cited by ChosunBiz expect production to remain at that level through the year. The company faces Washington's export restrictions on advanced chipmaking equipment and yields that Counterpoint Research estimates are about 42% lower than Samsung and SK Hynix, leaving CXMT near 50%. Even at full operation, CXMT's capacity is roughly 50% of SK Hynix's and about 30% of Samsung's, according to ChosunBiz estimates. Counterpoint puts CXMT at around 9% of global DRAM bit shipments.
CXMT is not weak financially: it booked $7.5 billion in first-quarter revenue, completed an $8.6 billion Shanghai listing, and signed a more than $7 billion five-year memory agreement with ByteDance. But Beijing has told the company to prioritize domestic customers, and Goldman Sachs estimates CXMT will meet only 41% of China's DRAM demand in 2026, rising to just 50% by 2028.
J.P. Morgan Global Research sees DRAM prices potentially rising more than 400% from the start of 2024 through the end of 2026, driven by hyperscalers locking in long-term supply agreements. Omdia expects more than 50% of total semiconductor revenue to come from memory chips in 2026, raising component costs for smartphones, PCs and other consumer electronics. Gartner projects worldwide semiconductor revenue to nearly double to $1.6 trillion in 2026, with memory industry revenue surging from $220.1 billion in 2025 to $837.3 billion in 2026. DRAM revenue is projected to climb 246.6% and NAND revenue 371.9%.
Micron Technology shares rose 2.03% to $928.80 in premarket trading Tuesday. Analysts expect Micron to report September-quarter earnings of $31.26 per share, up from $3.03 a year earlier, on revenue of $50.78 billion. William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji said tight supply and take-or-pay agreements point to “at least a gentler reduction in earnings power this cycle.” Long-term supply deals cap some of Micron's upside, but its spot and short-term exposure still benefits. New capacity from Samsung and SK Hynix remains years away; SK Hynix's Y2 DRAM plant is not expected to reach the cleanroom stage until mid-2029.
