Marvell Earnings Preview: Google's $12 Billion Custom Chip Deal in Focus

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Google's warrant stake signals long-term confidence, yet dilution risk looms for shareholders.
  • Forward P/E of 58 prices in AI success; any guidance miss could trigger sharp correction.
  • Marvell's $120B Google revenue forecast is optimistic; monitor TPU adoption progress for confirmation.

Marvell Technology enters Thursday’s fiscal Q2 FY27 earnings report with the spotlight firmly on its newly expanded relationship with Google. The stock hit $252 last week after the announcement, then pulled back to around $228–$237 as investors took profits and awaited the quarterly release.

Under the commercial agreement, Alphabet-owned Google received a warrant to purchase up to 58.97 million Marvell shares at $206.58 per share, a stake worth approximately $12.19 billion. The deal covers development of Google’s custom chips, including tensor processing units known as TPUs, and extends a partnership that has been running for years. Marvell also plans to make Google’s TPU technology available to other companies.

Wall Street expects Marvell to report earnings per share of $0.93, up 39% year-over-year, with revenue growing about 35% to $2.72 billion. Analysts see the Google relationship as the main event. Stifel estimates the commercial agreement could generate around $120 billion in cumulative revenue over slightly more than six years, while Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers raised his price target to $310 from $240 and modeled roughly $80 billion in cumulative Google revenue through FY33.

Marvell’s broader AI momentum includes work with Microsoft and Amazon, and its Celestial AI acquisition has strengthened its data-center positioning. Annual revenue is projected to grow 41% to $11.55 billion this year and 45% to $16.8 billion next year. However, valuation risks remain: the forward P/E has climbed to 58, above Nvidia, Micron, and SanDisk, and investor Michael Burry has warned about a possible AI bubble.

Technical analysts note the stock is holding above its 50-week exponential moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but a bearish evening star candle pattern could signal a pullback toward the $200 area. Wall Street consensus remains a Strong Buy, with 24 Buy ratings and five Holds, and an average price target of $287.50, implying roughly 25% upside from current levels.

Previously on the topic:
Aug 19, 2026, 2:22 p.m.
Marvell Stock Jumps After Google Expands Custom AI Chip Partnership
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