Bernstein’s latest research covers two major crypto themes: a bullish long-term Bitcoin trajectory tied to fiscal debasement, and Circle’s stablecoin expansion that analysts say can continue regardless of the CLARITY Act outcome.
Bitcoin forecast: Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027, with a base case of about $125,000 by the end of 2026 before climbing to $150,000 in the first half of 2027. The firm sees a cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029, while a faster institutional adoption scenario could push Bitcoin to $200,000 by mid-2027 and a peak near $500,000 in 2029. Bernstein maintained its longer-term forecast of roughly $1 million by the end of 2033.
Analysts pointed to roughly $40 trillion in US sovereign debt, rising interest costs, and potential currency debasement as reasons scarce assets such as Bitcoin may continue attracting demand. Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply cap and structural changes—including spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, and about 59% of supply unmoved over the past year—could limit the severe drawdowns seen in earlier cycles. The forecast follows Bitcoin’s roughly 28% gain over 10 days after a decline of about 50% from its October 2025 peak, with BTC recovering above $77,000.
Circle and USDC: Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle stock, implying roughly 59% upside from its $87.98 Friday close. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said Circle’s growth cycle can continue without passage of the CLARITY Act. USDC supply increased by approximately $1.7 billion over the past week, supporting expanding use in stablecoin payments, tokenized assets, blockchain-based capital markets, and agent-driven transactions.
Bernstein estimated adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes reached $11 trillion during 2025 and are tracking toward $17 trillion annually through July, representing about 60% year-over-year growth. USDC also accounts for roughly 99% of x402 agent-payment volume, while Circle’s Agent Stack platform reportedly supports more than 900 paid services. The Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is expected on September 15, and Bernstein argued regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC could still accelerate if lawmakers reject the bill.
Strategy update: Despite the bullish Bitcoin outlook, Bernstein lowered its Strategy price target to $350 from $450, citing a revised Bitcoin cycle outlook and faster equity dilution. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, and has paused purchases while raising cash through equity sales. The new target still implies about 176% upside from Strategy’s Tuesday close of $126.83.
