SpaceX shares slipped about 1% on Wednesday, extending a volatile stretch in which the stock has closed lower in six of the past nine sessions. Yet analysts remain strongly bullish after the company confirmed plans to build a $100 billion Starship launch facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, with construction expected to begin in 2027 and initial launches targeted for 2029.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, implying more than 70% upside. Jonas said investors are underestimating the scale of the Louisiana plan, which includes 15 launch pads compared with three current pads and three more expected fully operational by the end of 2027. He noted that only eight pads would be needed to reach his 2040 forecast of approximately 5,800 Starship launches per year and $3.5 trillion in revenue, assuming each pad can perform two launches per day.
Wolfe Research also reiterated an Outperform rating with a $175 target, citing regulatory and infrastructure progress. The firm said the 125,000-acre site is designed as a self-sustaining spaceport with power generation, spaceship processing, a deep-water port and an airport. Wolfe noted current launch licenses are limited to 145 launches annually, while existing infrastructure supports roughly 25 launches per year, and the new site could relieve those constraints.
Louisiana Economic Development said the facility—branded Starbase Louisiana—will sit on a former Exxon property on the Gulf Coast. At full buildout it will house five launch complexes, each with two launch pads and a propellant farm, alongside propellant production, power generation, deep-water shipping access, vehicle processing, an airport, and employee housing. The site is projected to create 3,000 direct jobs over 10 years at an average annual salary of $92,600, about 192% above the Vermilion Parish average, plus 8,100 indirect jobs. Peak construction employment could reach 30,000 workers.
SpaceX has committed $25 million to the Community Foundation of Acadiana, $25 million annually for 25 years in payments instead of taxes with an escalator clause, and a $20 million upfront payment, bringing total local payments to about $820 million. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry said the announcement pushes the state beyond $250 billion in new investment.
The announcement was accompanied by an acceleration in SpaceX's orbital data center timeline. Musk said SpaceX, in partnership with Nvidia, has designed a space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system for launch to orbit in Q4 2027, moved up from 2028. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth projected orbital compute capacity could reach about 75 GW by the end of 2031. SpaceX has already spent more than $8 billion developing Starship.
For SPCX investors, the expansion arrives amid share unlock pressure. The first unlock on August 6 released roughly 912 million shares and increased the public float from 4.9% to about 12%. Additional unlocks are scheduled for September 9, September 24, October 9 and October 24, with a separate affiliate release on September 10. The full 180-day lockup expires on December 8, while Musk's stake does not unlock until June 2027. Analyst consensus remains at a $228 average price target, suggesting most coverage views the recent selloff as supply-driven. SPCX rose about 2.5% on the Louisiana announcement.
