Silver is consolidating near $68.50 per ounce as markets await Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The metal has rallied from the $56–$58 area earlier in August toward the $69–$70 zone, supported by renewed concerns over global debt and dollar debasement after the U.S. Treasury increased buybacks of older, long-dated bonds.
Macro data is adding to the caution. The PCE price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, above expectations, while CME FedWatch data showed a 38% chance of a September rate hike and above 70% probability for December. The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near 104.50 and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.35%, creating headwinds for non-yielding assets. Silver’s immediate technical outlook puts support at $67.80 and resistance at $69.20, with the 14-day RSI near 52.
Trader Rashad Hajiyev sees $79 as the next major resistance, with a descending trendline from highs near $98 in March and $90 in May approaching that zone. He outlines three scenarios at $79: rejection and correction, a false breakout followed by a deeper decline, or consolidation just below resistance before a genuine breakout. His preferred path is a move to $77–$78, several weeks of consolidation under $79, and then a breakout that could open the door to $90 and eventually $100. From $69 to $100 would require a 44.9% gain, making $79 a crucial checkpoint.
Industrial demand also provides a floor. The Silver Institute projects global industrial demand to rise by 4% this year, led by solar energy applications. Still, the immediate direction for silver and broader macro-sensitive assets will likely depend on the tone of Warsh’s remarks and any shift in rate expectations.
