Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has outlined a scenario in which XRP could trade above $7 by June 2029, provided the asset's market capitalization reaches $500 billion and Ripple's escrow distributions remain moderate.
In an August 27, 2026 post, the analyst broke down the supply-adjusted calculation. XRP's circulating supply currently stands at approximately 62.74 billion tokens. At a $500 billion market cap, that would imply a price near $7.97. However, if Ripple maintains a net escrow distribution pace of roughly 268 million XRP per month through June 2029, about 9.1 billion additional XRP would enter circulating supply, bringing the total to about 71.9 billion XRP. Dividing $500 billion by that figure gives roughly $6.96, with Egrag Crypto projecting a likely range between $6.85 and $7.20.
The forecast was supported by a logarithmic chart tracking XRP's market capitalization through two-week candles. At the recorded point, XRP's market cap was about $88.76 billion, after its latest two-week candle gained 42.71% and briefly pushed the valuation above $106 billion before sellers trimmed gains. The chart's upper ascending trendline approaches the $400 billion to $500 billion region around the June 2029 projection, placing the target near the upper boundary of XRP's long-term channel structure. From $88.76 billion, XRP would need an approximately 5.6-fold increase to reach $500 billion.
Egrag Crypto emphasized that Ripple's escrow releases do not automatically increase circulating supply. Unlocked XRP can be re-escrowed, retained in controlled accounts, or distributed through institutional arrangements, so a scheduled one billion XRP unlock does not equate to one billion tokens entering the open market immediately. Net distribution, which tracks XRP moving beyond Ripple-controlled holdings, is the key variable. The $7 target depends on both a $500 billion valuation and sufficient demand to absorb ongoing escrow-related supply.
