Canada’s economy expanded in the second quarter, but the underlying picture remains uneven. Statistics Canada reported real GDP rose 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024, rebounding from a flat first quarter and slightly above the 0.7% consensus. Services-producing industries grew 0.8%, goods-producing industries rose 0.6%, and government spending jumped 1.6%—the largest quarterly increase since 2021. Household spending advanced only 0.3%, while non-residential business investment increased 1.4% and housing investment rose 1.3%. Inventory accumulation subtracted 0.5 percentage points from overall growth.
A separate annualized GDP report for Q2 2025 showed the economy grew 3.3%, just below the 3.4% forecast and down from an upwardly revised 3.6% pace in the previous quarter. Finance and insurance, business investment, and government spending were the main contributors, while consumer spending moderated. Monthly GDP increased 0.2% in June after a 0.1% gain in May.
Despite the positive headline numbers, per-capita real GDP fell 0.2% in Q2 2024, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. This divergence suggests population growth is outpacing economic output, keeping pressure on living standards. The Bank of Canada is expected to weigh these mixed signals at its next policy meeting, with markets pricing in a potential rate cut as inflation approaches the central bank’s 2% target.
For cryptocurrency markets, the macro backdrop is neutral to cautiously supportive. A gradual economic cooling and possible monetary easing could eventually benefit risk assets, but the uneven Canadian data does not provide an immediate catalyst for digital assets.
