Prediction market operator Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos and imposed a $71,356 penalty after finding that he manipulated contracts tied to his own attendance at the 2026 State of the Union address, generating $17,839.57 in illicit profit.
According to a disciplinary notice dated August 28, Santos placed large trades between February 2 and February 25 in event contracts whose payout depended on whether he attended the event. Kalshi found that he violated rules prohibiting market manipulation, trading on an outcome a member can influence, and deceptive schemes. The exchange also cited him for failing to cooperate with its investigation.
Regulatory filings from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission provided a detailed timeline. Santos opened his Kalshi account on February 11, deposited about $7,000, and accumulated 30,874 “Yes” contracts. After posting on X about what suit to wear, the “Yes” price rose from about $0.15 to $0.70; he sold for a $3,448.43 profit. After flight and train cancellations, he shifted into “No” contracts and posted misleading updates, eventually closing the position on February 25 with a profit of $14,390.57.
The Kalshi action is separate from a July CFTC order under which Santos agreed to a three-year ban from CFTC-registered venues, disgorgement of $17,569.98, and a $17,500 civil penalty. The case is the latest integrity enforcement action involving prediction markets, following a MrBeast editor suspension, charges against a U.S. soldier over Polymarket trades, and a fine against a former White House teleprompter operator. Kalshi says it has since added employer-disclosure rules, a whistleblower channel, and expanded risk reviews.
