Bitcoin entered September with competing technical signals after a strong August rally of roughly 25%, leaving traders debating whether the current cycle bottom has already formed. On Sept. 1 at 9:00 a.m. UTC, the BTC/USDT spot order book showed a notable shift in cumulative volume delta (CVD), a metric tracking the net difference between aggressive market buying and selling. The yellow CVD line, which follows orders between $100 and $1,000, was flat, while the brown line tracking large orders from $1 million to $10 million edged lower. This divergence indicated that larger market participants were more active sellers early in the UTC session, a pattern that can precede short-term downside pressure if it persists.
The accompanying volume heatmap highlighted a dense cluster of trading activity near the $58,000–$59,000 range, a zone that had been repeatedly tested in recent weeks. A decisive break above that area with rising CVD would confirm buyer control, while a failure could open a retest of lower support near $56,000. At the same time, broader spot pricing was reported around $79,000, underscoring the gap between historical liquidity pockets and the current market structure after August’s recovery.
Separately, analyst CryptoCon published a cycle-duration chart comparing Bitcoin’s current drawdown with previous bear markets. His model shows the present bear-market phase has reached roughly 330 days, or about 84% of the average 391-day duration recorded after the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle peaks. The previous bear markets lasted roughly 417, 372, and 384 days respectively. If the current period follows that average, CryptoCon’s projection places a potential cycle bottom around late October 2026, about two months from the date of publication.
CryptoCon acknowledged the bullish evidence including the 25% August gain and improved sentiment, but cautioned that calling the bottom now would mean assuming this cycle is breaking from a historically consistent pattern. He noted that during August and September of prior bear markets, investors similarly believed a final low was already in, only for another leg lower to emerge. However, he did not present a specific downside target, and his own framework suggests the market is much closer to a major bottom than to the start of another prolonged bear market.
For short-term traders, the CVD snapshot suggests caution because the lack of smaller-order buying combined with large-order selling often precedes a pullback, while long-term investors may view the large-order selling as profit-taking rather than a bearish reversal. The coming weeks will likely test the two competing narratives: continued strength from the August recovery, or a final cycle decline toward the late-October window implied by the historical model.
