Prediction-market traders have dramatically cut the odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026, with Polymarket contracts falling from 82% in February to roughly 13-15% by early September. The shift comes ahead of a scheduled September 15 Senate cloture vote on H.R. 3633, a bill that would give the CFTC exclusive authority over spot digital-commodity markets while leaving the SEC to oversee securities-classified tokens and exchange intermediaries.
Kalshi prices the probability of a Senate vote before October 1 at 91%, but its odds for actual passage have dropped to about 22%. Traders cite unresolved disputes over stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, anti-money-laundering rules, and restrictions on officials’ crypto-related activities as reasons for the widening gap between a procedural vote and final enactment. Polymarket’s contract has moved more than $11.5 million in volume, while Republicans hold 53 seats and need at least seven Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is trading near $78,646, down 0.28% over 24 hours. Analysts view the $76,000-$78,000 zone as near-term support, with resistance at $82,000-$84,000. A failed September 15 cloture vote could push passage odds into single digits and trigger a retest of sub-$76,000 support, while a surprise bipartisan breakthrough could lift BTC toward $84,000.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said he remains “rather optimistic” about clearing 60 votes, but market pricing is much colder. The Blockchain Association, led by CEO Summer Mersinger, is advocating for the bill and will discuss its implications at the Solana Institute Summit. The legislation would define “digital commodities” and could directly affect major assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum by establishing a comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework.
