President Donald Trump is holding private discussions with senior aides about potentially declaring the U.S.-Iran war over, according to The Wall Street Journal and Reuters. Aides are reportedly advising that a further escalation beyond recent strikes could cost Republicans control of the House and Senate in the November 3 midterm elections. Four people familiar with the discussions told Reuters that White House officials want to keep the conflict relatively quiet until after the vote.
The strategy has come under pressure after Iran launched fresh missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait in the early hours of Thursday. Kuwaiti Armed Forces confirmed their air defense systems were intercepting “hostile targets.” The U.S. military described its latest actions as retaliation for recent attacks on American forces and marine traffic. Over the weekend, Washington struck rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, and Iran subsequently fired missiles toward Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Trump warned on Truth Social that if Iran retaliates, it “will be hit again at a much harder and higher level.”
Domestically, the war is unpopular. A late August Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 31% of Americans approve of the conflict, while 63% disapprove. Voters are especially angry about high gasoline prices caused by disruption to oil shipping routes. The conflict is now past the six-month mark, well beyond Trump’s initial timeline of four to six weeks.
Military and economic pressures are mounting. Reuters reported in August that the U.S. military had used “virtually all” of its supply of certain precision missiles. The Washington Post reported that the heads of the Army, Navy, and Air Force warned Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth in writing that prolonging the war was unsustainable. The Pentagon has pushed back, saying the military has “everything it needs to execute” its mission. The White House has shifted toward an economic isolation campaign, threatening massive sanctions on any country trading with Iran while maintaining a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, China has said it will not join Washington’s effort to isolate Iran, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the pressure campaign could cause Iran to lash out militarily.
The Strait of Hormuz, which supplied about a fifth of the world’s oil before the war, remains largely closed. Traffic is still only a fraction of pre-war levels. Brent crude traded around $95.20 a barrel on the latest reports, and oil prices edged higher early Thursday after the latest strikes.
For crypto markets, an end to the Iran war could remove a major source of inflation pressure. Lower oil prices may cool inflation and give the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates. If yields drop and investors return to riskier assets, Bitcoin may gain alongside stocks, according to market commentary. The potential de-escalation is therefore being watched not just for geopolitical reasons, but also as a macro catalyst for risk assets including BTC.
