Apple faces a combination of component-cost inflation and production constraints heading into its September 9 “Surprise and Shine” launch event. TrendForce said the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will likely be priced 10% to 20% higher than their predecessors, the first major Pro price increase in two years. The firm estimates memory costs for the 256GB Pro model will be almost 400% higher in Q3 2026 than a year earlier, lifting the total bill of materials about 38% year over year. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects DRAM prices to rise 400% or more in 2026 as hyperscalers lock in long-term supply deals.
The foldable iPhone—potentially called iPhone Ultra—is at the center of Apple’s premium push. TrendForce expects it to start at around $2,099 to $2,299, with the highest-storage model possibly exceeding $3,000. However, Nikkei Asia reported that production was running at only a few hundred units per day in late August, far below the tens of thousands per day that industry executives say are needed to meet Apple’s target of 8 million to 10 million foldable iPhones this year. Supply chain sources cited Apple’s very high quality requirements, including stricter durability testing, more folding cycles, and greater screen flatness. An additional verification process in August delayed commercial production by several weeks.
Apple stock fell about 2% on Friday as investors weighed the supply hurdles. IDC projects the global smartphone market will decline 16.7% this year, while memory shortages may push average smartphone selling prices up about 27.6%. Apple’s global smartphone share rose to 20.2% in the April-to-June quarter from 16.3% a year earlier, and Citi expects the foldable iPhone to start above $2,000, with the Pro models costing about $200 more than previous versions. Huawei is also preparing new triple-fold devices, increasing competition ahead of Apple’s launch.
The September 9 event will be Apple’s first major product launch under new CEO John Ternus, who officially succeeded Tim Cook on September 1. Ternus has described the upcoming launch as a major one, while Apple works to balance premium product demand with component constraints.
