Prediction market traders on Kalshi are taking a notably conservative stance on XRP for the rest of 2026. Kalshi’s How high will XRP get this year? market currently displays a forecast around $1.80, with contracts settling based on XRP prices through December 31, 2026. That forecast remains above XRP’s current price near $1.32, but it falls far short of the token’s previous record highs.
The individual contract probabilities highlight the caution. Kalshi gives XRP roughly a 34% chance of trading above $2 before year-end, about 20% for a move above $2.50, and approximately 19% for XRP reaching more than $3. The market has attracted more than $230,000 in trading volume. From around $1.32, XRP would need to rise roughly 52% to reach $2 and more than 127% to touch $3, which explains why even the $1.80 forecast implies recovery without an explosive rally.
Separately, analyst More Crypto Online says the $1.20 area is becoming the next important level to watch. On the daily Bitstamp chart, XRP is trading around $1.29 and pulling back from a recent recovery high near the mid-$1.50s. Fibonacci retracement levels show the 38.2% level at approximately $1.3788, the 50% level at $1.2929, the 61.8% level at $1.2123, and the 78.6% level at $1.1062. XRP is therefore trading almost directly around the 50% retracement, with the 61.8% retracement near $1.21 closely matching the analyst’s $1.20 support zone.
On the upside, the analyst’s chart maps larger Fibonacci levels around $1.66, $1.94, $2.14, $2.26, $2.43, $2.63, and a broad $2.80 to $3.00 area. The short-term bullish scenario would require XRP to hold the $1.20 to $1.21 region and reclaim $1.38, which could reopen the $1.50 to $1.66 zone. A neutral case would see consolidation between roughly $1.20 and $1.38. The bearish scenario would begin with a clear loss of $1.20, opening a move toward $1.10 and then potentially the deeper support region near $0.99.
For now, XRP’s broader bullish structure has not been invalidated, but the token is approaching the level that could determine whether the pullback remains controlled or deepens further.
