Fed Rate Bets Ease Ahead of US Payrolls Report

1 hour ago 1 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Macro data now outweighs crypto-native narratives as BTC dances with Fed expectations.
  • A weak payrolls print may revive rate-cut bets, boosting Bitcoin and altcoins.
  • Waller's dovish shift signals Fed uncertainty; expect crypto volatility around CPI next week.

US stock futures were mixed on Friday as traders awaited the August payrolls report, with Nasdaq 100 contracts leading the premarket move. Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 135 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1% and Dow futures were little changed. The cautious tone followed Thursday’s rally after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled he could support holding rates steady at the September meeting if inflation continues to cool. Markets now price roughly a 50% chance of a September rate increase, down from about 63% before Waller’s remarks.

The August jobs report is the next major test. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 53,000 following a 23,000 decline in July, with unemployment forecast to hold at 4.1%. A weaker print could reinforce concerns about slowing hiring and make a September increase harder to justify, while a stronger report could revive pressure on Treasury yields and rate-sensitive technology stocks. Gold rose 2.08% to $4,477.36, and US gold futures settled 2.5% higher at $4,525.40 as lower yields and a softer dollar supported bullion. Oil prices also extended gains, with Brent crude up 0.16% to $95.78 and WTI up 0.69% to $91.64 amid renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.

In corporate news, Volkswagen announced plans to cut another 50,000 jobs and streamline its lineup, while Nvidia agreed to acquire open-source AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. For crypto markets, the macro backdrop remains the key driver: rate-sensitive digital assets could face volatility around the payrolls release and next week’s inflation data.

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