Palantir Stock Soars 51% in August as Michael Burry Warns of 75% Downside Risk

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Key takeaways:

  • Palantir's AI momentum may lift sentiment for AI-linked tokens like FET and RENDER.
  • Burry's bearish valuation warning highlights risk for high-multiple AI narratives.
  • Monitor PLTR volatility as a bellwether for institutional appetite in AI exposure.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) delivered the strongest August performance in the technology sector, surging 51% from $123.06 to $186.38, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund gained only 6.36%. The rally followed second-quarter results that showed revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year over year and $130 million above analyst expectations. Earnings per share reached $0.41, beating the $0.34 consensus.

U.S. commercial revenue climbed 149% to $764 million. Palantir closed 220 deals worth at least $1 million, including 73 deals of $10 million or more, and U.S. commercial total contract value bookings reached $2.132 billion, up 153%. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15 billion, implying about 82% growth, and expects adjusted free cash flow of $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion.

In early September, Palantir expanded its partnership with PwC US on an AI platform for M&A, using Foundry and AIP tools to cut transaction time by up to 50% and one-time deal costs by up to 45%. It also won a $192 million U.S. Army TITAN contract for eight tactical intelligence systems. PLTR rose roughly 8% on September 4 before closing at $174.33.

However, investor Michael Burry renewed his bearish case on September 2, arguing the roughly $432 billion market cap could fall below $100 billion, a drop of more than 75%. Burry contends Palantir’s deferred revenue ratio of 32% is closer to consulting firm Accenture at roughly 40% than software peer Salesforce at over 150%. He also flagged receivables of $1.49 billion and a single customer accounting for 27% of receivables but less than 10% of revenue. PLTR fell nearly 6% after Burry’s post, then jumped 7.7% the next day after the PwC announcement. Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $192.19.

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