XRP is hovering near $1.3664, up 0.75% on the day, as traders focus on a narrow technical zone between the 20-day EMA at $1.3586 and the 200-day EMA at $1.3548. The token has held the $1.35 support shelf since early September, following a spike to $1.71 in late August and a nearly 20% pullback over the past three weeks.
Analyst Ali Martinez said $1.35 is the critical level for XRP's short-term direction. According to Martinez, whales sold or distributed roughly 90 million XRP over the past week, while daily active addresses collapsed 90.18% from 388,492 to 38,163. Despite the activity drop, about 2.29 billion XRP have historically changed hands around the $1.35 price region, reinforcing it as technical support.
Martinez sees a potential rebound if XRP climbs back above $1.38, with targets at $1.60 and then $1.68. However, XRP price predictions also note a large liquidity pocket near $0.98 as a key downside risk if the shelf breaks.
Broader macro conditions are adding pressure. The odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike jumped to nearly 90% after August CPI rose 0.4%, up sharply from July's 0.1%. On the institutional side, XRP ETFs have now recorded nine consecutive weeks of net inflows through September 11, offering a bullish offset to short-term technical caution.
The immediate bias remains rangebound: holding above $1.35 keeps a recovery scenario alive, while losing it could open a deeper liquidity sweep toward $0.98.
