The Federal Reserve has confirmed it will not raise interest rates this week, according to market commentary and crypto analyst Ran Neuner. The decision lands despite earlier futures pricing that showed an 80% to 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike following strong jobs data and inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target.
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its meeting Tuesday and will announce the rate decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holding a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, while wholesale inflation via PPI came in hotter than expected. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed close to 5%, adding pressure on high-growth and rate-sensitive assets.
Before the Fed decision, August retail sales data lands Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Prior retail spending fell 0.6% from June to July without adjusting for inflation. Strong consumer spending could harden the case for future tightening, while weak numbers may signal household stress. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel after drone attacks shut a key Saudi pipeline carrying about 4 million barrels per day, keeping inflation concerns alive.
At the same time, the Clarity Act is expected to pass, potentially providing a clearer U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets. That prospect, combined with stable interest rates, could support crypto market confidence even as oil and Treasury yields remain macro headwinds. Traders are likely to reassess positioning as economic data and regulatory votes unfold.
