Bitcoin is caught between an improving on-chain sentiment picture and a deteriorating macro backdrop. CryptoQuant noted that the market is shifting from a bearish phase toward a neutral state, with signs that buyers are beginning to regain control and a potential uptrend could emerge. The update has drawn trader attention because it may signal that the recent downturn is losing momentum.
However, the more immediate price action remains under pressure. After rallying above $79,000 on Monday, Bitcoin fell more than 1% over 24 hours and traded below $77,000 on Tuesday. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.02%, its highest since mid-2007, while Brent crude rose to roughly $107.37 per barrel and WTI traded above $103. Higher yields and energy prices tighten financial conditions and can reduce liquidity for speculative assets such as Bitcoin.
Central bank risk adds to the bearish case. Markets price about a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and a Reuters survey indicates 85% of economists expect a hike to 3.75%–4%. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, potentially forcing an unwind of yen-funded carry trades. On the technical side, the daily chart is still broadly bullish but momentum is weakening: the RSI has dropped from an overbought 83 on August 21 to around 52, and MACD lines are converging toward negative territory. If Bitcoin loses the rounded-top pattern’s neckline near $76,000, a decline toward $70,000–$71,000 could follow. A recovery above $80,000 would ease the immediate downside risk.
