A rare Bitcoin buy signal linked to miner activity has resurfaced, according to institutional research firm 10X Research. The indicator has flashed only ten times in its history, with eight of those instances resolving in positive returns. Across all ten signals, the median gain was 58.6% and the average return reached 41%, though two past episodes produced drawdowns of 24% and 40%. 10X Research noted that the sample remains small and does not guarantee a repeat performance.
Bitcoin traded around $79,125 after gaining 2.35% in 24 hours, with market capitalization near $1.58 trillion and a roughly 25% advance over the previous month. By Monday, the price was above $79,000, bouncing after a 3.2% weekly decline, and reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average near $77,430. Analyst Ted Pillows cautioned that heavy sell orders are positioned between $80,000 and $83,000, adding that a decisive break above that zone could confirm a cycle bottom and open room for another leg higher.
The market backdrop includes major macro catalysts. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing the probability had climbed to 92.7% by Monday, up from 59.4% a week earlier. Rising August inflation, elevated crude oil prices with WTI above $100 and Brent near $105, and a stronger U.S. dollar are cited as factors supporting tighter monetary policy. QCP Capital said the hike itself appears largely priced in, but warned that persistent oil-driven inflation could limit the Fed's ability to ease later.
On the regulatory front, the U.S. Senate is preparing to vote on the CLARITY Act as early as Tuesday after the bill previously failed to reach 60 votes. Senator Cynthia Lummis said the updated draft incorporates more than 120 Democratic demands, including ethics restrictions on elected officials and their spouses, and that President Donald Trump had agreed to two historic ethics provisions. The revised bill would also grant the Treasury Secretary new authority aimed at preventing deposit flight associated with payment stablecoins. President Trump separately suggested the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a deal, which helped pull oil prices lower and supported risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Analysts caution that order book liquidity could thin ahead of the formal central bank statements, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to sharp swings. With the Fed decision, Bank of Japan rate action, and the Senate vote converging later this week, the miner-derived buy signal will face a high-stakes macro test.
