Bitcoin is trading near $76,000, but Ned Davis Research projects it could reach roughly $170,000 by 2030 and $230,000 by 2035, according to chief alternatives strategist John LaForge. The forecast comes as BTC trades around $76,300–$76,500 after another volatile stretch, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording about $450 million in net outflows on Sept. 15 and another $296 million on Sept. 16.
LaForge outlined seven valuation approaches: network adoption, gold comparison, money-supply growth, production costs, portfolio risk, adoption cycles and stock-to-flow. He emphasizes network adoption as preferred because it focuses on rising holders, active addresses and ETF exposure rather than supply scarcity alone. He is skeptical of stock-to-flow, arguing demand growth has not been strong enough to justify some of the model’s higher historical projections.
A CoinShares mining report estimates listed miners faced a weighted average ex-tax cash cost of about $75,500 per Bitcoin in Q2, placing production cost unusually close to BTC’s current price. Extended trading below miner costs could pressure operators to sell reserves or reduce mining activity.
Reaching $230,000 would require Bitcoin to rise roughly 201% from current levels, and LaForge frames the outlook as dependent on adoption and demand rather than fixed supply alone.
