Ethereum has entered a recovery phase after defending a key support zone near $2,400, with analysts now focusing on a possible push toward $2,600 and then $3,300. The cryptocurrency reversed upward from a confluence of technical support that included the former double top from April and May, the lower daily Bollinger Band, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August upward impulse, and the upper trendline of a previously broken channel from June.
ETH rose nearly 2% over 24 hours after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, moving from a low of $2,370 on Wednesday to around $2,470. Traders appeared to treat the rate increase as largely priced in, producing a counterintuitive recovery across the crypto market. According to FedWatch data, markets are pricing in an almost 90% probability of at least one additional Fed rate increase by December.
Despite the rebound, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds experienced $405.7 million in combined outflows over the last three days, keeping monthly net inflows well below August levels. The outflows may reflect investor concern that higher rates make risk assets less attractive while boosting returns on cash and government bonds. At the same time, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Friday, the second increase in three months and the highest level in 31 years.
Volume data is also drawing attention. A bullish crossover occurs when the seven-day moving average of trading volume rises above its 30-day average. Santiment data shows the gap between the two averages has narrowed considerably, and a crossover would be the first since July 2025, when Ethereum advanced from about $3,300 to $4,750. The current daily chart still shows a possible bull flag after buyers defended $2,400. A decisive break above the flag’s upper boundary near $2,550 could open the door to approximately $3,300 over the following weeks, while the Relative Strength Index remaining above 55 suggests bullish momentum has not disappeared. Failure to clear $2,550 would leave ETH vulnerable to another test of $2,400 or a deeper pullback toward the 200-day exponential moving average.
