Nucor shares fell more than 5% on Friday after the steelmaker issued Q3 2026 earnings guidance below Wall Street expectations. The Charlotte-based company projected diluted earnings per share of $5.55 to $5.65, compared with analyst consensus of $5.99. The stock traded at $255.16 in after-hours, down from a session high of $268.08.
Steel Dynamics also dropped about 3.5%, falling to $240.21 in premarket trading, after guiding Q3 EPS to $5.34 to $5.38, below analyst expectations. The selloff was compounded by Canada's announcement of 50% tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum, raising concerns about export competitiveness in North America. Cleveland-Cliffs slipped 0.2% to $12.74.
Nucor's guidance gap was partly driven by one-time Q2 items that will not repeat: a $61 million non-cash gain tied to its investment in fusion energy company Helion and roughly $130 million in raw material procurement refunds. Nucor also expects lower raw materials segment earnings due to weaker pricing and shipments. Steel Dynamics offered a more upbeat core outlook, expecting steel operations profits to be meaningfully higher quarter-over-quarter on metal margin expansion, higher average selling prices, lower scrap costs, and increased shipments.
Despite the misses, analysts largely viewed the guidance as conservative rather than alarming. JPMorgan raised its price target on Steel Dynamics to $273 from $260. U.S. benchmark steel prices have risen nearly 30% this year to $1,237 per ton and are up 49% over 12 months. Nucor remains up 63% year-to-date, while Steel Dynamics is up 45%. Berkshire Hathaway reduced its NUE stake during Q2 2026. Tariffs and potential price reversals remain key risks for the sector.
