Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has projected that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could eventually hold assets equivalent to three times those currently held by gold ETFs, describing the forecast as a long-term possibility rather than a near-term certainty.
In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Balchunas said younger investors are more likely to treat Bitcoin as a store of value as they accumulate capital, giving Bitcoin ETFs a potential structural advantage. “I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets,” he said. He described Bitcoin as “gold as a teenager,” contrasting its roughly 17-year history with gold’s much longer record. Volatility remains the main concern reported by investors, but if Bitcoin’s volatility and correlation with other assets keep moving closer to gold, he expects larger institutions to become more comfortable using it as a store of value, a safe haven asset, or an alternative holding.
Balchunas also highlighted distribution and sales activity. He wrote that Bitcoin has “way more enthusiasm and sales firepower,” and that wholesalers familiar with both crypto and older investors are actively educating clients about BTC ETFs. Still, he emphasized that gold is not going away: “Gold isn’t going anywhere. I just think it will be lapped by Bitcoin ETFs as a category long term.”
Near-term flow data remains mixed. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $159.45 million in net inflows on September 17, after losing $295.98 million on September 16 and $450.33 million on September 15. For the week through September 17, the products saw $426.81 million in net outflows. Cumulative inflows stood at $54.73 billion, while total net assets reached $96.25 billion, equal to 6.26% of Bitcoin’s market cap. Earlier in September, the funds posted $462.73 million in net outflows across four sessions through September 11, following an August week that attracted more than $1.9 billion. Additional reporting noted Bitcoin and Ether ETFs drew $2.6 billion in their strongest week since October, while Harvard tripled its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $442.8 million.
The comparison is specifically about ETF assets under management, a concrete measure of regulated exposure rather than a direct price claim. Still, sustained inflows at a pace that outruns gold ETF growth would mark a fundamental shift in how institutional capital allocates to store-of-value assets.
