CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju issued a bullish but tempered outlook for Bitcoin on September 23, 2026, saying the “Bitcoin bull run just started, but no one cares.” His comments put Bitcoin’s market cycle back into focus amid a debate over whether the cryptocurrency is entering a sustained expansion phase.
In a separate analysis, Ju said he expects Bitcoin’s current cycle to deliver a 3-to-5x rally rather than another 10x-plus parabolic run, followed by a milder bear market than past cycles. He argued that the market’s larger institutional base is dampening both euphoric highs and brutal drawdowns. Pointing to CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, he noted cycle tops and bottoms are forming at higher profitability levels, and MVRV never fell below 1 this cycle — meaning holders as a whole never went underwater even at the lows. Ju also cited a rising realized cap, “OG whales” who have stopped selling, and futures whales building large long positions near the bottom. “None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed,” he wrote. “Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash.”
CryptoQuant’s research added technical support to the bullish view. Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average near $80,500 for the first time since March 2023, a level that previously marked the 2019 and 2023 bull markets. On-chain indicators turned bullish in mid-August, and BTC has since cleared the $76,000–$81,000 zone where long-term holders had been selling heavily. CryptoQuant placed the next resistance at $88,000 to $90,000. Technician Jamie Coutts flagged the same $80,000 area as the market’s biggest cluster of long-term resistance and said his volatility breakout model found seven of eight similar setups since 2016 up a median of 41% six months later.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $86,500, up about 1.5% over 24 hours and 14% over the past week. It had gained more than 12% over the last month, though it remained down more than 23% year-on-year. The recent recovery followed a rough stretch that included the CLARITY Act failing a Senate vote and the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since July 2023, which pushed BTC down to $75,000 more than once. Bitcoin broke higher on Monday as ETF inflows accelerated, adding about $7,000 in under a day and pushing past $87,000 for the first time since late January. Market watchers at Bitfinex noted the next volatility test could land on September 25, when a large options expiry is scheduled, while US real yields near 2.68% remain a headwind for risk assets broadly.
