Bitcoin traded near $84,490 on Thursday, down from Monday's $87,397 high, as traders priced in sharply higher odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again as soon as October. CME's FedWatch tool now shows roughly 75% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 27-28 meeting, with December odds near 59%.
The pullback follows a rapid rally that carried Bitcoin from the mid-$70,000s to an eight-month high in under a week. Inflation concerns and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr, who said further policy adjustments are likely needed, have pushed rate-hike expectations higher. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, sits at 3.4%, well above the 2% target.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote—the first hike since July 2023. While Fed Chair Kevin Warsh initially paired the move with a dovish dot plot projecting a median rate of just 4.1% through 2027, markets have since repriced the risk of additional tightening.
Total crypto market capitalization dipped about 2.5% to $2.93 trillion, down from the $3 trillion level touched during last week's rally. Crypto derivatives recorded $348.33 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with $270.89 million on the long side and $77.43 million on shorts, according to data cited in the reports.
Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, BNB and Solana were the only two posting 24-hour gains. BNB rose 2.75% to $781.33, extending an 11% weekly gain after Binance's $100 million purchase of Circle shares tied it into five years of USDC growth. Grayscale's Smart Contract Fund gave BNB a 30.6% weighting in its latest rebalance, edging out Ethereum's 29.47% and Solana's 29.15% to make BNB the fund's largest holding.
Solana climbed 2.31% to $116.08, rebounding from an intraday low of $112.52. On the 4-hour chart, SOL held above its Supertrend line at $112.38, keeping the short-term signal bullish, while the RSI eased to 55.58. The daily Bollinger Band places nearby resistance at $119.90, and CoinGlass's 3-day liquidation heatmap showed a dense cluster of estimated leveraged positions around $120. Analysts warned that a break below $110 could open a gap toward $96, while a move above $148.73 would be needed to confirm a higher-timeframe change of character.
Ethereum traded up just 1.42% near $2,689, XRP was essentially flat at $1.52, Zcash dropped 2.5% to $1,527.57, and Hyperliquid slipped 0.37% to $93.04 as traders locked in gains. Despite the cooldown, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $998.9 million on Monday—their biggest single-day haul in 11 months—and net 2026 flows turned positive for the first time this year at roughly $320 million. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remained at 73 in "greed" territory, while the Altcoin Season Index sat at 51.
