JPMorgan analysts have highlighted Bitcoin’s estimated average production cost of roughly $85,000 as a “soft floor” for the mining sector, rather than a hard price level. Bitcoin moved above that threshold during the most recent rally but slipped back below it, trading around $84,187 on September 25.
The bank said the level matters because sustained prices below production cost can force less efficient operators to sell more of their mined or treasury-held BTC, shut down machines, or exit the market. JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin spent approximately 280 days below production cost before briefly crossing above it this week, compared with about 224 days during the 2018 bear market.
The network has already undergone a shakeout: JPMorgan cited a roughly 19% fall in hash rate from its October peak and a roughly 15% decline in mining difficulty. In its view, some uneconomic capacity had already left the network, which can improve marginal economics for surviving miners. However, a temporary move above production cost does not change mining economics overnight, and Bitcoin would likely need to remain around or above the threshold long enough for miners to feel material improvement.
Public-miner costs vary widely, reinforcing that the $85,000 estimate is a broad sector benchmark rather than a company-specific break-even. CoinShares put publicly listed miners’ weighted-average cash cost at approximately $79,995 per BTC in the fourth quarter of 2025. Riot Platforms reported a first-quarter 2026 cash cost excluding depreciation of $44,629 per BTC, while CoinShares estimated all-in costs of $153,040 for MARA and $170,366 for Riot.
Miner treasury behavior and the sector’s pivot to artificial intelligence also affect selling pressure. CoinShares estimated publicly listed miners reduced their BTC treasuries by more than 15,000 BTC from peak levels, and that roughly 15% to 20% of the global mining fleet was unprofitable at the reported hash price. JPMorgan said miners are redirecting capacity toward AI revenue, which could slow Bitcoin hash-rate growth and, for some operators, reduce reliance on selling BTC to fund operations.
Earlier JPMorgan targets remain notably higher: in February, analysts led by Panigirtzoglou suggested Bitcoin could eventually reach roughly $266,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold, while in November 2025 the bank calculated potential upside toward roughly $170,000 over six to 12 months.
