West Texas Intermediate crude futures pushed toward $95 a barrel and Brent held near $107 after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping a geopolitical risk premium firmly in place across oil and macro markets.
On Polymarket, the contract “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?” showed the above-$95 outcome priced at 67.5% as of 00:50 UTC on September 28. That market had drawn $8.43 million in total volume, with $95,000 traded in the prior 24 hours and $1.39 million in available liquidity. The contract settles on October 1, 2026.
The move followed a diplomatic rupture: Trump rejected an offer from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks if U.S. aggression ended and Iranian assets were released. November WTI futures rose 1.87% to $94.14, while Brent crude gained 2.89% to $107.34. Reports indicated Trump expects U.S. strikes on Iran to resume after the midterm elections.
By Tuesday, Brent traded around $106.77 and WTI near $93.94, even as preliminary Kpler data showed Middle East crude exports at a seven-month high of about 12.8 million barrels per day in September. That is still roughly 6 million barrels a day below February’s 18.8 million, with shipping, insurance and routing through the Gulf still disrupted. Saudi Arabia shipped about 5.4 million barrels per day, and flows through Hormuz were expected near 7.4 million barrels per day.
Saudi Aramco restarted exports through the repaired East-West pipeline to Yanbu, but the route is operating below previous capacity. KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer said higher export volumes still depend on costly workarounds and do not represent a return to normal conditions. NAB chief economist Sally Auld told The Wall Street Journal that Washington and Tehran remain far apart on a ceasefire and reopening the strait.
For crypto traders, the oil move is a macro signal. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about one-fifth of daily global crude and LNG supply, and sustained conflict-driven oil strength may feed into risk-asset volatility, including Bitcoin and broader crypto markets. The Polymarket odds reflect a real-time market view rather than a guaranteed outcome, and they may swing sharply on further diplomacy or military developments.
