Bitcoin has retreated after testing above $87,000 and is now trading in the $82,000–$85,000 range, but two fresh research reports suggest the largest cryptocurrency may be setting up for a much larger move. Binance Research says Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average on September 8, creating a 'golden cross' after 293 days below the 200-day average. The report examined 12 previous golden crosses and found that when Bitcoin had spent at least 150 days below the 200-day moving average, peak gains over the following year ranged from roughly 100% to 600%. In contrast, most cases with shorter periods below the average produced maximum gains below 100%.
Binance Research compares the current setup most closely to the October 2015 golden cross, after which Bitcoin rose approximately 150% from its peak level. However, the firm emphasizes that historical similarities do not guarantee future performance due to the limited sample size and potential overlap between periods. Macroeconomic pressure also remains: the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.17%, its highest since 2007, and interest rate expectations continue to weigh on Bitcoin. The report notes that inflation and employment data will be key in determining whether the uptrend can hold.
BIT Research goes further, stating that Bitcoin's bear market is over and projecting a cycle target of $185,000 to $215,000. The firm identifies a late-July cycle low after Bitcoin held above $62,900, and notes that weekly RSI formed a bullish divergence similar to the 2022 bottom. Bitcoin has since reclaimed its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and was trading around $83,800, above the March 2024 peak of $73,084. With the True Market Mean estimated at $76,897, both typical holders and average spot ETF buyers are back in profit, reducing selling pressure. BIT Research also points to strong ETF demand: September net inflows reached $2.8 billion, cumulative inflows hit $57.6 billion, and total net assets reached roughly $108 billion. The firm's debt-based valuation model gives a reference value near $105,000, while its cycle analysis uses the $142,000 level as a benchmark before arriving at the $185,000–$215,000 range. Still, BIT Research cautions that timing is uncertain and short-term consolidation or a larger pullback remains possible.
