Kalshi is reportedly in talks to raise approximately $1 billion at a valuation of about $40 billion, a sharp increase from its previous private rounds and a sign that investor appetite for regulated prediction markets continues to intensify. The discussions are still ongoing, meaning the final size, valuation and investor list could change, and no transaction has been completed.
The valuation trajectory is notable: Kalshi raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation in June 2025 in a round led by Paradigm, then added another $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025. A $40 billion round would represent roughly eight times that October 2025 valuation. Kalshi operates as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated designated contract market and has expanded into sports, politics and economics event contracts. Competitor Polymarket has also moved aggressively, returning to the U.S. through its acquisition of CFTC-regulated QCEX infrastructure for $112 million in 2025.
Separately, Kalshi said it plans to terminate its Volume Incentive Program no earlier than Oct. 13. The program began in March 2023 and paid traders from reward pools based on their share of eligible volume. The move comes after an X account named Beni alleged that Kalshi inflated perpetual futures volume, pointing to roughly $539 million in 24-hour trading volume against only $3.1 million in open interest for Kalshi's ETH perps pair. The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC was examining trades on the platform after allegations that repeated trades of around $5,500 inflated ether perpetual futures volume, accounting for more than $5 billion in ETH perps volume over the past month. Kalshi has denied being under investigation and said wash trading does not occur on the platform, attributing the repeated prints to market makers posting fixed quotes that faster traders hit.
Kalshi's monthly volume reached $52.98 billion in September as of Sept. 29, an all-time high and above August's $38.67 billion. Meanwhile, Ark Invest disclosed direct exposure to Kalshi through its ARKK, ARKW and ARKF ETFs, with Ark estimating the medium-term prediction market opportunity at $1 trillion to $5 trillion in annual volume. "While Kalshi is still private, we want our investors in early," said Nick Grous, Ark's director of research for consumer internet and fintech.
