SpaceX shares rose 3% on Wednesday to $149.24 after a wave of bullish Wall Street commentary followed the company’s Starship Flight 14 milestone. Citigroup analysts led by John Godyn set a long-term price target of $900 a share, which would value SpaceX at roughly $12.2 trillion, more than twice Nvidia’s current market value. The company is currently valued at around $2 trillion.
The successful 14th flight of Starship reached orbit on September 28 and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. It was the vehicle’s first revenue-generating flight. SpaceX launched Starship for the first time since July, and despite an engine problem, the spacecraft reached orbit. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu noted that SpaceX still needs to determine the cause of the booster’s engine issues and investigate the early shutdown of one of Starship’s Raptor vacuum engines; that failure nearly forced the company to abandon its attempt to reach orbit.
Citi sees Starship as enabling infrastructure rather than a direct revenue driver, arguing that its launch capabilities support satellite connectivity and artificial-intelligence businesses. Citi forecasts SpaceX revenue of about $484 billion and EBITDA of $360 billion by 2030, and about $1 trillion in revenue by 2031. That compares with consensus estimates of $409 billion in revenue and $311 billion in EBITDA for 2030. Citi also has a $200 share price target for the end of this year.
Needham reiterated a Buy rating and a $250 price target after talks with SpaceX’s investor relations team. Needham expects most AI compute deals to ramp in Q4 2026, with one starting as early as December. The announced AI compute deals alone could produce a combined annualized revenue run rate of about $54 billion. SpaceX is targeting roughly $100 billion in total annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026, compared with $23 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. Needham trimmed some AI revenue estimates for the second half of 2026 and into 2027, citing the "lumpy" nature of contract renewals.
Other analysts also updated their views. Bernstein and Mizuho kept Outperform ratings with price targets of $248 and $200, respectively. BofA Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $235 target. UBS stayed at Buy with a $210 target and projects third-quarter revenue of $13.8 billion, above the Street estimate of $12.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion. TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Buy rating, pointing to SpaceX’s AI compute leasing business. Analyst price targets range from $140 to $450, while InvestingPro’s analysis suggests the stock looks overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate.
