Ethereum traded around $2,662–$2,668 on Sept. 29–30, holding above key technical support as traders debated whether the next leg would push ETH toward $3,000 or trigger a deeper retest. The Binance ETH/USDT chart placed ETH near $2,668.39, with price action centered on a reclaimed weekly breaker block and internal range liquidity zone.
The bullish technical structure remains intact above the $2,445 support level identified in October seasonality analysis. Analysts see $2,800 as the first upside target, followed by $3,000, while a move through $2,800 would keep the charted $3,447.44 upper external range liquidity in focus. The $2,300 equilibrium is the main reaction reference within the broader support zone after ETH recovered from the lower external range liquidity at $1,505.68.
Institutional demand has strengthened the bullish case: spot Ether ETFs pulled in $689.9 million through Sept. 25, even as futures open interest declined. However, derivatives data show a sharp increase in bearish positioning. On Bitfinex, ETH shorts jumped from about 771 ETH to more than 101,000 ETH over two weeks, according to trader Julian. That sets up a potentially volatile tug-of-war between spot ETF inflows and leveraged short sellers.
Seasonality adds another layer to the October outlook. ETH has closed October higher in seven of the past 11 years, though the median gain is a modest 1.44%. The 20-day exponential moving average remains a closely watched trend line near $2,700, with ETH pulling back from a September peak near $2,800 but still trading just below the rising trendline.
