Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk released competing clinical and real-world data this week in the obesity and type 2 diabetes drug market, intensifying their rivalry.
On Tuesday, Lilly said its oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo outperformed Novo's Ozempic pill, also known as oral semaglutide, in an indirect comparison for adults with type 2 diabetes. The analysis pooled data from two late-stage studies, comparing Foundayo's 17.2 mg dose against Novo's 25 mg Ozempic pill. Lilly reported up to 2% greater weight loss and modestly better blood sugar control. Novo's 25 mg Ozempic pill is not yet approved in the US for type 2 diabetes, with an FDA decision expected by the end of 2026.
Novo pushed back, saying the comparison focused on diabetes patients rather than obesity patients, who typically lose less weight in clinical studies. Both drugs belong to the GLP-1 class of treatments.
Lilly also presented new data comparing its injectable Zepbound with Novo's high-dose Wegovy over 72 weeks. Patients on Zepbound 15 mg lost about 5% more body weight on average than those on Wegovy HD, while the 10 mg dose lost roughly 3% more. Lilly said patients on the 15 mg dose were three times more likely to achieve 20% or higher weight loss than those on Wegovy HD. Discontinuation rates from side effects were similar across groups. The data came from the SURMOUNT-1 and STEP UP trials and were presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes annual meeting.
On Wednesday, Novo presented results from its real-world OCTANE study at a diabetes conference in Milan. The study tracked 194 patients who switched from injectable obesity drugs to the daily Wegovy pill. Participants lost an average of 4.1% of body weight over three months, about 4 kg, or 8.8 pounds, from a starting weight of 221.6 pounds. Nearly 41% lost at least 5% of body weight, and the share classified as clinically obese fell from 87.1% to 65.5%. The data used telehealth platform Ro records.
Novo Nordisk stock has fallen more than 70% from its all-time high as Eli Lilly took over market leadership in obesity drugs. Novo highlighted that oral therapies now account for about a third of US obesity prescriptions, with Novo holding more than 80% of new oral prescriptions. CEO Mike Doustdar told Reuters that pills could eventually make up half the global obesity-drug market. Analysts value that market at $100 billion or more annually by the end of the decade. Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange said: "Clearly, a lot of patients do even better on the pill than they did on the (injectable) drugs."
The Wegovy pill carries a boxed warning for possible thyroid tumors and should not be used by people with medullary thyroid carcinoma or MEN 2 syndrome. It is currently available in the US, UK, Germany, and the UAE, with additional launches planned.
