Veteran trader Peter Brandt has raised an unusual long-term question for silver: what if major bull-market peaks are separated by intervals that keep halving, potentially pushing the next secular all-time high out to 2033 or 2034?
Brandt's quarterly COMEX silver futures chart goes back to the 1970s. He marks the 1980 speculative peak and the 2011 peak as roughly 31 years apart, then identifies a shorter gap of about 14 years before the latest major run. Halving the interval again would imply roughly seven years, which places the next major cycle peak around 2033-2034.
He explicitly frames this as a question rather than a firm forecast. The chart shows silver has now moved above the long-standing $51-$52 resistance zone, with the latest price near $61.85. Long-term moving averages are rising, and the ADX reading around 42.7 signals a well-developed trend. That suggests silver’s secular structure remains strong even if another full-blown peak is years away.
Meanwhile, analyst Alasdair Macleod argues the recent gold and silver sell-off may be more bullish than it looks. He points to low open interest on COMEX gold and silver contracts, meaning speculative positioning is already relatively clean. Contract expiry and China’s Golden Week holiday from October 1 may have reduced liquidity, allowing larger players to push prices lower and trigger long stops without normal Asian buying pressure.
Macleod said: “The current markdowns in gold and silver are immensely bullish.” His view is that if investor and speculator demand returns while positioning is still light, prices can move higher more easily into year-end.
The two views are not identical: Brandt is cautious about the timing of silver’s next major secular peak, while Macleod sees the current weakness as a constructive reset. Both suggest the precious metals complex may remain volatile, but the longer-term structure and positioning backdrop are stronger than the recent sell-off implies.
