Bitcoin’s long-term bullish case is facing a critical technical test, according to CryptoQuant analyst Trdaer_Gemini, who says the largest cryptocurrency’s MVRV Ratio Z-Score must hold above its 365-day moving average for the constructive structure to remain intact.
The on-chain valuation indicator has recovered from depressed levels and moved back above its annual average, meeting the analyst’s core condition. However, both the Z-Score and its yearly average remain below zero, and the average is still sloping downward. That means the indicator has improved relative to the prior year’s average, but the broader annual trend has not yet turned upward.
Trdaer_Gemini’s framework allows for short-term price corrections as long as the Z-Score stays above the 365-day line. Historical periods show that when the indicator crossed above its annual average and held during pullbacks, the bullish pattern was preserved. But previous crossings also produced reversals, so the latest move does not guarantee a sustained rally. A decisive breakdown below annual support, followed by failed recovery attempts, would challenge the bullish outlook.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which values coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain. Although realized capitalization approximates the network’s cost basis, not every on-chain movement represents a purchase, so negative Z-Score readings alone do not establish that Bitcoin is trading below realized value or that holders are at a loss.
Separately, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than ten months, a technical milestone that analysts view as a potential signal of renewed upward momentum. The rebound has been supported by rising institutional interest, improving regulatory clarity, and shifting macroeconomic factors. Traders are now watching key resistance levels as Bitcoin tests the upper bounds of its recent range.
While the technical backdrop points to a possible end of the prolonged bear market, market participants remain cautious because crypto volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty could still disrupt the recovery. For now, the bullish case remains conditional on Bitcoin preserving its moving-average support and on-chain valuation strength.
