Bitfinex has issued a cautionary analysis on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory, highlighting a major supply barrier that could stall the market’s recovery. According to the exchange’s research, Bitcoin’s supply in profit currently stands at 71.3%. The analysts stressed that this metric has historically needed to climb above 75% to signal a transition from bear-market recovery into a new bull market, making a sustained push above $85,000 essential for bullish momentum.
Bitcoin has been consolidating between $82,000 and $85,000, with attention focused on spot Bitcoin ETF flows and a high-cost supply zone. Bitfinex identified $84,000–$86,500 as a critical resistance range, where approximately 1.39 million BTC is held at elevated cost bases. If price revisits that zone, investors near break-even may sell, creating notable overhead pressure.
ETF demand has weakened after a strong run. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $148.7 million on Wednesday, ending a nine-day inflow streak that totaled around $3.08 billion. Daily inflows have cooled from roughly $1 billion on September 21. Bitfinex’s BAER indicator, which measures ETF absorption of new supply, declined from 25.6 on September 21 to 1.8 on September 29. For Bitcoin to absorb the supply wall and remain above $84,000, Bitfinex estimates ETF buying must recover to about $190 million per day, corresponding to a BAER reading near 5.
