Bitcoin’s case for a push toward $100,000 has strengthened on two fronts: a macro framework that Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell says is turning more supportive, and on-chain and derivatives data showing thinner sell-side liquidity and renewed accumulation signals.
Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, believes rising pressure in the U.S. bond market could become a strong bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. He argues that with the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio above 120% and the budget deficit around 6–7% of GDP, high interest rates are increasing government borrowing costs. That may push the U.S. Treasury to reduce long-term bond issuance and lean more heavily on short-term Treasury bills. Farrell views this as a form of market intervention that can increase liquidity and eventually erode the dollar’s purchasing power, supporting scarce assets like Bitcoin. He likened the process to a slowly melting ice cube and said Bitcoin’s shallower drawdown in the recent bear market may be a sign of structural change. Farrell no longer expects his earlier $115,000 target to be reached in 2026, but he does not rule out Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 before year-end. He also said a 10% pullback would likely attract strong buyers, and highlighted Bitcoin’s break above the 50-week moving average as a potential regime shift. The next U.S. Treasury quarterly funding announcement could be a very strong catalyst if it shows more aggressive cuts in 10- to 30-year issuance.
On the market-structure side, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $87,000 on Oct. 2 after breaking through an $85,000 sell wall that had repeatedly stalled previous rallies. Glassnode noted that some orders were filled and the rest withdrawn, leaving less ask liquidity immediately above. CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend bands have begun contracting, similar to patterns before sharp advances in March and April 2025, though the limited sample makes it far from a reliable standalone signal.
Bitwise says Bitcoin has reclaimed key cost-basis levels including the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000, the true market mean near $77,000, and the average ETF investor cost basis near $83,000. The next hurdles are concentrated in the $90,000–$100,000 zone: CryptoQuant’s Darkfost estimates underwater cohorts have average cost bases near $88,350 and $89,200, while Bitwise’s valuation bands mark $90,000 and $95,000 as historically stretched levels. Deribit data shows about $2.1 billion in call open interest at $90,000, $2.4 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $100,000. Bitcoin open interest also rose from roughly $52 billion to $56.2 billion in early October. Macro pressure eased after U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.2% and lowering the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting below 20%. A sustained break above $90,000 would open the path toward $100,000, while failure could shift attention back to the $83,000 ETF cost-basis support.
